The Playoff Preview series continues with looks at tomorrow's games (which will be live-blogged here). Earlier today, we previewed the East Division final between the Toronto Argonauts and Montreal Alouettes. Next, the West Division final between the Calgary Stampeders and Saskatchewan Roughriders, scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern tomorrow.
This was probably the West Division final most anticipated from the start of this season, as Calgary and Saskatchewan were the class of the division last year and returned most of their key players. However, it's flipped locations from last season; in 2009, both went 10-7-1, but Saskatchewan won the tiebreaker, hosted the West Final and knocked off the Stampeders to get to the Grey Cup. That marked the second-straight season where the team that hosted the West Final won it, as Calgary defeated B.C. at home in 2008 to move on and eventually claim the Grey Cup. This year, Calgary had the stronger regular season and put up a 13-5 record to earn the right to host this game, while Saskatchewan faltered down the stretch to finish 10-8. Will the host team again prevail in the West Final? To find out, let's look at the matchups.
Calgary offence: Five Henry Burris bra pictures
The Stampeders' offence was absolutely dominant this season, rolling up 626 points, 105 more than their nearest opponent (Montreal). Every other team finished with less than 500 points. Calgary's terrific offensive line allowed them to get it done on the ground with running backs Joffrey Reynolds and Jon Cornish, and through the air with Burris, Nik Lewis, Ken-Yon Rambo, Romby Bryant and others. The main concern with their offence is that it can be somewhat schizophrenic, showing up in stellar form some days (like their 52-5 beatdown of Edmonton) and then going missing in action on other days (such as their 29-10 loss to the Casey Printers-led B.C. Lions). They also turn over the ball quite a bit (20 interceptions and 14 fumbles this season). Still, that isn't enough to bump this unit below five stars; it's just a disclaimer that it doesn't always perform as advertised.
Calgary defence: Four Henry Burris bra pictures
The Stampeders allowed only 459 points this season, third in the league behind Toronto and Hamilton, and they got some excellent performances on defence, particularly from cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Dwight Anderson. Still, I'm not entirely sold on their defence as a unit. Some of their low point totals were more as a result of the dominance of their offence than anything the defence went out and did. I love their coverage along the sidelines with Browner and Anderson, but I'm not as sold on Milt Collins (pictured above getting burned by Andy Fantuz in a Sept. 17 game) , Brandon Smith and Wes Lysack deep over the middle. They have a terrific front four of Charleston Hughes, Tom Johnson, DeVone Claybrooks and Robert McCune, but their linebacking corps isn't as convincing in my mind. As I mentioned yesterday, Malik Jackson, Juwan Simpson and Keon Raymond all started their Stampeders' careers at other positions. They've all made the transition to linebacker well, especially Simpson (even if I don't think he should have been an all-star), but I wouldn't rank them as highly as some of the league's other linebacking corps. Still, those concerns aren't enough to demote this unit below four stars.
Calgary special teams: Three Henry Burris bra pictures
Calgary has the league's top punter by average in Burke Dales (45.6 yards per attempt), and that often gives them a significant field position advantage. However, the rest of their special teams units aren't as strong. Rookie kicker Rob Maver may have led the league in scoring this year, but a large part of that's thanks to the 70 point-after conversions he kicked. His 37 made field goals were second only to B.C.'s outstanding Paul McCallum, but he did miss 10 field goals and put up a 78.7 per cent field-goal percentage; not bad, but sixth in the league. He's a talented player, and certainly had a strong rookie campaign, but he isn't automatic. The return game also hasn't been a shining light for the Stampeders; Deon Murphy has been decent (1,586 combined yards, fifth in the league), but not particularly outstanding.
Total: 12 Henry Burris bra pictures
Saskatchewan offence: Five boxes of Fantuz Flakes
The Roughriders' offence shone in last week's semi-final, putting up 41 points on a talented B.C. defence. League passing leader Darian Durant threw for 310 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, and the Riders also got a solid performance from the rushing game, with Wes Cates rumbling for 65 yards and a touchdown. Even without the injured Rob Bagg, Saskatchewan arguably has the deepest receiving corps in the league with CFL receiving leader Andy Fantuz, Weston Dressler, Chris Getzlaf and Cary Koch. They've got the talent to put on an aerial show any given Sunday.
Saskatchewan defence: Four boxes of Fantuz Flakes
The defensive performance last week was less impressive, particularly against the run where the Riders gave up 75 yards to Jamal Robertson on only 11 carries. They'll need to improve on that if they want to have any chance of stopping the Stampeders' powerful rushing attack. Fortunately, they're getting all-star calibre linebacker Barrin Simpson back this week, and he's key to their rushing defence. The Riders' defence is also good at creating turnovers; they forced an interception and a fumble last week.
Saskatchewan special teams: Three boxes of Fantuz Flakes
The Riders' return game has received a boost in recent weeks with the addition of Ryan Grice-Mullen, and Eddie Johnson is a great punter as well as a terrific story. The kicking game is a bit more iffy since Luca Congi's injury, but Warren Kean hasn't been too bad. This isn't a terrific special teams unit, but it's one that made the plays it needed to last week.
Total: 12 boxes of Fantuz Flakes
Add the totals up: 12 Henry Burris bra pictures versus 12 boxes of Fantuz Flakes
X-Factor: The weather. It's expected to be -15 in Calgary tomorrow with a significant wind chill and plenty of snow. That probably favours the Stampeders given the strength of their running game.
Y-Factor: The crowd. Although this is a home game for Calgary, they won't have all the support. I know from my Grey Cup experience in Calgary last year that plenty of Roughrider fans live in the city, and I'd imagine plenty more will be making the trip west for this game. There will be plenty of Stampeders fans there as well of course, but the travelling Rider armada can significantly reduce a team's expected home-field advantage.
Prediction: I'm expecting this will be a close, high-scoring game despite poor weather. Both teams have great offences but significant questions on the defensive and special teams fronts, and that could mean we have a lot of points in store. I don't think this is going to turn into a run-every-play game despite the cold, as Saskatchewan simply can't afford that. The Riders have more than enough talent to air it out, and keep in mind that slippery conditions can lead to defensive backs falling as well as receivers. Look for Saskatchewan to prevail in a close shootout. Saskatchewan 35, Calgary 31.
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