Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Washington Wizards vs. Denver Nuggets: Look For A Wizards Upset at Home

The Washington Wizards will look to continue their strong play at home when they host the Denver Nuggets Tuesday night at the Verizon Center.

The Wizards fell 115-106 at New York on Monday, falling to 0-21 on the road this season. Washington, however, is 13-9 at home this season, including an 85-83 win over the Celtics on Saturday.

Denver comes in off a 121-107 win at home over the Indiana Pacers, but the Nuggets have also struggled on the road, going just 5-13 away from home.

Despite the difference in home and away records for these two teams, our NBA spreads indicate that the oddsmakers have the Nuggets favored by five points over the Wizards with the total set at 211.

This trip will tell us a lot about just where this Denver team is. The Nuggets open up a five-game road trip against teams with a losing record. Denver hasn't looked good at all on the road lately, winning just once in their last seven games away from home. A lot of those struggles came during all the trade talk involving the Nuggets and Nets, but those are gone and Denver appears to be playing better basketball.

Carmelo Anthony scored a game-high 36 points against the Pacers on Sunday, and is averaging just over 31 points in his last three games. Anthony has to play well on the road for the Nuggets to start winning more, but he needs the whole team to play better.

Al Harrington came off the bench to score 16 against the Pacers, while Ty Lawson added 13 and J.R. Smith came away with eight points. Denver got 45 points from their bench, and while they likely wont get that much production out of the reserves, these three are going to have to play well for Denver to survive on the road.

Washington has looked like a completely different team on their home court, winning five of their last six, but will be tested tonight by the Nuggets. In their win over the Celtics they shot just 43 percent from the field, but because they were so strong on the defensive end, they were able to pull out the win. Washington is allowing just 96.4 points at home, compared to 102.4 overall.

John Wall is really starting to come into his own, and it is a big reason why the Wizards have started to win more games lately. Wall is averaging 14.8 points, 11 assists, and 5.6 rebounds over his last five games, and it just seems like he is getting better and better as the season goes on.

Wall finished with 18 points against the Knicks last night, but he got plenty of help offensively in the losing effort. Nick Young finished with 22 and Rashard Lewis came away with 20. The Wizards even shot 48 percent from the field and lost because the defense just wasn't there.

I think you have to take the five points and bet the Wizards to at least cover the spread at home, but don't be surprised if they end up winning the game. Denver just isn't playing well on the road, and its hard to see them coming in and taking control of this game.

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