"What will it take for Roberto Luongo to be pulled in Game 7?"
I've been asked this in radio interviews, emails and in one conversation at a Boston airport bar. How much rubber must pass through Luongo in the last game of the 2011 Stanley Cup Final until his coach throws in the towel, sends out Cory Schneider and benches his franchise keeper?
It's a difficult question to answer because (a) Coach Alain Vigneault has used Schneider as a psychological panacea for Luongo's struggles, rather than the Canucks' Plan B; and (b) because the notion of Luongo crapping the bed on home ice, where he's stopped 95 of 97 shots and shut out the Boston Bruins twice, is inconceivable.
Then again, so was his getting pulled one game after calling out his competition in a postseason news conference. And yet … Game 6 happened.
The notion of Luongo somehow imploding in Game 7 can be classified as "the unpredictable." Neither the Canucks nor the Bruins are approaching the game with the expectation that there's a ticking time bomb between the Vancouver pipes. Heck, Tim Thomas has had his adventures in Vancouver, too; though not many.
There are more foreseeable keys to Game 7, as the Vancouver Canucks and Boston Bruins battle one last time with the Stanley Cup on the line. And here are five of them …
Oh, Glorious Clich�: Score the First Goal
The Vancouver Canucks are 11-2 when scoring first in the 2011 Playoffs. The Boston Bruins are 11-1. The Bruins are 8-2 when leading after the first period; the Canucks are 6-2.
The Bruins have scored first in each of their home victories in the Final; the Canucks scored first in each of theirs.
There are always going to be games that buck trends that seem this ingrained. But if the Bruins score the first goal, it amps up their energy in their offensive and checking games, while also increasing the tension inside what could be a pressure cooker of an arena for the home team.
The Physical Game
The Bruins were aggressive in taking the body during their three home games, but were pushed around by the Canucks in Game 5. They said after that game that Vancouver was giving them opportunities ? on the power play and by being out of position ? to make them pay, but they didn't.
An aspect of the physical game is the forecheck. Boston didn't create much chaos in front of Luongo during Games 1, 2 and 5, partially because they made life easy for the Canucks' defense on dump-ins. That battle could be the most important of the game.
The physical tone set in the first period could really determine which team gets on the scoreboard first, but both the Bruins and Canucks have to be careful not to turn that quest for a big hit into a fool's errand.
Canucks Must Have Advantage on Man Advantage
The most inexplicable facet of this series is the Boston Bruins' advantage on special teams.
It was assumed the Bruins might have a chance to play the Canucks even, but to have a power-play advantage is just absurd given their earlier struggles.
The Worst Power Play in Hockey has gone 5�for 26 in this series, while the Vancouver Canucks are 2 for 31.
A malfunctioning power play puts more emphasis on 5-on-5 play (where the Bruins are better) and doesn't allow the Sedins to get rolling offensively. The twins have scored 50 percent of their postseason points (21 of 42 combined) on the power play. They have two points combined on the power play in the Final.
Jeff Tambellini and Rich Peverley
Tambellini joins the lineup to replace Mason Raymond, who broke his back after a collision with Johnny Boychuk in Game 6. He last played in Game 3, where he was a minus-2. Overall, he's scoreless and a minus-3 in five playoff games after posting 17 points and a plus-10 in the regular season.
From Ben Kuzma of the Province:
Tonight, Tambellini hopes to wear the label of unlikely hero as a replacement for the injured Mason Raymond in the biggest game of his life. The speedster will likely start on the second line with Ryan Kesler and Chris Higgins against the Boston Bruins, but could move to the third alignment if there isn't instant chemistry.
Regardless, the chance to play in his sixth postseason game this spring is not lost on Tambellini. He hasn't scored in 46 games, dating back to Dec. 28 against Philadelphia, but knows anything can happen in a winner-take-all game.
Peverley, meanwhile, was Nathan Horton's replacement on the top line for the Bruins with David Krejci and Milan Lucic. He hasn't tallied a point in Vancouver during the series, despite having two goals and two assists in Boston.
The top line for the Bruins could be the key to finally getting to Luongo in Vancouver; Peverley needs to be better on the road, where he has four points in 11 games.
Finally, The Scintillating Chess Match of Line Matching
Some hockey wonks love the "game within a game," so get ready to get your wonk on.
It really does make a difference when the Sedins and Alex Burrows can escape the centurion gaze of Zdeno Chara and the Bruins' best defense; they have more room to operate, more time to cycle and genuinely looked as dangerous as they are supposed to look during brief stretches of Game 6.
Like any good chess match, the reaction to a move can determine the fate of the game. Julien will deploy his troops first; Vigneault will react with his personnel choices: When to get the Sedins out there, to bring out the energy line, what to combat the Bruins' top line with … these are the decisions the Canucks coach must make, and will determine who brings home the Cup.
So those are the keys to Game 7 … of course, according to Red Light District's NHL 11 simulation, it's 2-1 Boston on a Brad Marchand goal. Again, for what it's worth.
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