It's real simple for those watching Strikeforce's "Feijao vs. Henderson" card tomorrow night on Showtime.
If you're not backing Dan Henderson in this fight, you can claim to not care all you want, but at the end of the day, you're still backing Rafael Cavalcante—and for good reason.
Most experts believe this is the first real test for both men in Strikeforce, and this writer truly believes that this fight might be the only sensible option for a Light Heavyweight title fight in Strikeforce left for the promotion to make because after this fight, regardless of whether we see a new champion or not, everyone else is just getting a shot at either Feijao or Henderson just to say they "fought him once."
Of course, if you're paying any attention to this fight, the first question you might be asking yourself is "Can Feijao do what nobody has done before and knock Henderson out?"
Ask a sum of a hundred people, and half of them may say "yes" but the other half will likely say "no."
Count me in the percentage that says that Feijao can, in fact, KO Henderson.
For the longest time, Henderson has gone on in his fighting career without even having a TKO due to injury or cut on his record.
He's faced a who's who in MMA—including a who's who of striking sensations—and not one of them has been able to KO "Hollywood Henderson."
Michael Bisping?
His loss to Hendo is pretty much KO of the Century.
Wanderlei Silva?
No "Axe Murderer's Abandon" there—just a loss by the scorecards and a KO fight prior to Hendo's UFC debut.
Quinton Jackson, who is as much a wrestler as Hendo?
He needed the full 25 to beat Henderson.
Anderson Silva?
He got taken down in Round 1 and had to sink in a serial killer choke to get the win over Henderson.
Henderson's caliber of fighter is one that Feijao has never faced before in the sport, and everybody knows about "Hollywood Homicide," that powerful kill-shot in the 12-gauge shotgun barrel that we all, for some reason, still recognize as Henderson's right arm.
If Feijao gets hit with that, he's likely not surviving Round 1 the way Jake Shields did. But then you go to the other side of the coin.
Sure, Feijao has never fought a Henderson before, but was Rogerio Nogueira akin to what Feijao is now?
Did Murilo Rua have a devastating Muay Thai game to which Feijao's couldn't hold a candle?
I don't think so.
Feijao's caliber of fighter is one of a guy that utilizes a Muay Thai game about as well as any Light Heavyweight in the sport, and as is the case with Hendo's right hand, anybody who makes contact with Feijao's knees is getting damaged, regardless of how tough they are.
If Henderson does attempt to land his signature against Feijao, his key to proving his doubters incorrect is to try and keep Feijao at bay before going in for it and to also use the cage to box the champion in.
How he does it is up to him, but the problem I see here is not only Feijao's takedown defense but also that he'll probably put Hendo against the cage and connect with a few short shots before he implements his Muay Thai game.
Once he does, Henderson can kiss his "iron jaw" goodbye.
Then again, maybe after tomorrow night, it'll be Feijao kissing his belt goodbye.
It all comes down to who can strike first.
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