It's no secret that we've been arguing for a long time around these parts that CFL coaches don't gamble enough on third downs. An extensive study looking at every third-down play in the 2009 season found that going for a first down on third down with six or less yards to go succeeded over half the time, and that from an expected points perspective, going for it with four yards or less to go would always be predicted to do better than opting for a punt or a field goal, regardless of field position. (There are certain field positions where it makes sense to go for it even on third and 10 or higher, such as if you're inside the opponents' 10-yard line). These kinds of third-down decisions may seem minimal parts of a game, but they could potentially have huge impacts given the small margins often involved in football; different third-down calls could have perhaps led to a Saskatchewan Grey Cup in 2010 or a B.C. victory in Week One. It's interesting, then, that the team that has made the worst statistical decisions on third down thus far is the Calgary Stampeders; we'll see if that pattern continues Thursday against Winnipeg (8 p.m. Eastern, TSN).
Stats guru Rob Pettapiece of The CIS Blog ran the numbers for every team's third-down decisions thus far in the 2011 season (using the expected points formula outlined here), and concluded that Calgary has lost a total of 7.5 points thus far by expected results. That includes 4.6 points in their first game against Toronto, where they consistently elected to attempt field goals with injured kicker Rob Maver instead of going for it even in such situations as third-and-two at midfield. Considering that they lost that game by two points, a few different third-down calls from head coach John Hufnagel (pictured above in an August 2010 game) �could have drastically altered the outcome.
The Stampeders weren't much better against B.C. in Week Two, conceding 2.9 expected points thanks to the same kind of decisions. However, they managed to win that one 34-32, perhaps partly because of B.C.'s Wally Buono giving away 4.4 expected points with his own third-down decisions. Still, on the whole, Calgary's 7.5 points below where expected values would have them if they'd made the best third-down decisions from a probability standpoint. That may not sound like a lot, but it's by far the most in the league: Toronto's second with 5.1 points lost, B.C.'s third with 4.4, and Montreal (unsurprisingly) and Saskatchewan (surprisingly) are the best with only 2.1 and 1.3 points lost respectively.
Of course, there are circumstances to take into account beyond the pure math, such as how your offence is performing on a given day, what the game situation is with respect to time and score, what play you call (as Toronto has learned, a deep handoff up the middle on third and short might not be the best idea to keep trying) and how confident you are in your kicker. In the end, it's the coaches who make the call on whether to go for it or not, and they're the ones that get the praise, the criticism and the paycheque, so they can do whatever they like. The point here is just that based on the percentages we've seen historically, CFL teams would be much better served going for it on third down more frequently. The Stampeders would have the most to gain from that so far given their poor third-down decisions; we'll see if things change Thursday in their clash against Winnipeg.
Ali Larter Angelina Jolie Erica Leerhsen Angela Marcello Paz Vega
No comments:
Post a Comment