When the CFL season started, the Edmonton Eskimos were unanimously picked by our panel to be in for another tough year, and most outside experts agreed, even if the organization maintained they were ready to get back to the glory days. Meanwhile, the B.C. Lions were a hot pick to win the West Division and get back to a home Grey Cup after their strong finish to 2010 and their solid offseason. After three games, though, things have gone all pear-shaped; Edmonton's on top of the West with a 3-0 record, while B.C.'s in the cellar with a 0-3 mark (including a thumping by Edmonton Saturday). Were we all wrong about these teams, or is this just the notorious Small Sample Size Monster wreaking havoc?
In both cases, the ultimate answer appears to be not 42, but rather a little from each of those columns. Starting with Edmonton, yes, the Eskimos have looked a lot better than most people expected. That doesn't make those predictions silly, though, as any prediction is a hypothesis based on the available information, and the available information didn't suggest a lot of great things about this team. Their massive roster turnover since Eric Tillman's appointment in the middle of last season was worrying, considering how CFL experience (and experience in a particular scheme) often seems to correlate with success. They were relying on a rookie head coach in Kavis Reed (even if there were promising signs about his ability) and a veteran quarterback coming off a down season in Ricky Ray, and their line wasn't able to protect Ray at all last season. Since then, many of Tillman's acquisitions have fit in very well, Ray's playing some of the best football of his career, and Reed has demonstrated he's already a very capable head coach. That's great for Edmonton fans, but it wasn't necessarily foreseeable.
The more important question is if the Eskimos will be able to sustain this drive, or if they'll revert back to the form we expected from them. There's a lot to be optimistic about from a statistical point of view, as Edmonton isn't just winning games, but is also blowing people out. Margin of victory can tell you a lot about a team, and the Eskimos have won by 14, 18 and 16 points thus far; all of those games could have been even further apart if they hadn't eased off the gas a bit at the end. The Edmonton offence is also clicking like crazy, putting up 103 points through three games (second only to Montreal), and their defence has been no slouch, allowing only 55 points (tied with Hamilton for second). Ray's stats are right up there with Anthony Calvillo at the top of the quarterback chart, and his completion percentage of 72.5 per cent is unbelievably good.
The caveat is that Edmonton hasn't faced much in the way of good defence, though. Saskatchewan's conceded the most points in the league, B.C. is second, and Hamilton's second-lowest ranking should be taken with a grain of salt given the Roughriders' offensive failure against the Tiger-Cats Saturday. The Eskimos are certainly better than many would have thought, and they definitely appear capable of making some noise in a West Division that seems up in the air. Whether they'll continue this form and actually contend for the division title remains to be seen, though.
On the Lions' front, there's a similar strength-of-schedule argument to be made. So far, they've lost close games to the Alouettes and Stampeders, two of the best teams in the league. Yes, they got demolished by the Eskimos this weekend, but as pointed out above, the Eskimos are no punching bag these days. Two of the Lions' losses (Montreal and Edmonton) have come on the road, and they might be in a more comfortable position in the standings with some different coaching decisions from Wally Buono.
That doesn't mean there aren't real issues in B.C., as there certainly are. One key area to look at is the secondary, which was decent in the first two clashes but struggled against Edmonton. Part of that might be thanks to the injury to Stanley Franks, which has forced a bit of a shuffle there; David Hyland (seen above trying to tackle the Eskimos' Daniel Porter) looked a bit like a fish out of water Saturday as a result. The defence as a whole has looked weak in the passing game, and the linemen and linebackers aren't generating much quarterback pressure. On offence, the Lions' receivers need to improve their catching. Travis Lulay's been making some great throws, but there have been far too many drops. The running game is also still largely missing in action despite a few promising signs against Edmonton.
Still, unlike Saskatchewan, B.C.'s issues seem more tied to schemes and experience than personnel. That doesn't mean they don't have real problems, but it does mean that those problems typically are easier to fix than ones that require a roster overhaul. In a division that looks likely to go down to the wire, 0-3 is far too early to completely write a team off. B.C.'s going to have to get a lot better to be a real powerhouse, but it doesn't seem out of the realm of plausibility despite their poor start. This is the CFL, after all, where anything not only can happen, but usually does. If ever anyone discovers exactly how the league works, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable.
Hayden Panettiere Jules Asner Whitney Able Kelly Clarkson Natalie Portman
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